Climate change, agriculture and internal human mobility in the Bhutan Himalayas

This case study is the abridged version of the chapter ‘Climate Change, Agriculture, and Internal Human Mobility in the Bhutan Himalayas’ published in ‘Climate-Related Human Mobility in Asia and the Pacific’, which can be downloaded from the right-hand column. We highlight some of the chapter’s key messages below, but please access the original text for more comprehensive detail, full references, or to quote text. 

Introduction

Bhutan’s unique geographic location and topographical diversity make it highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Agriculture is a vital part of Bhutan’s economy, but the sector is increasingly threatened by climate-induced hazards, such as erratic weather patterns and the drying up of water sources. The country’s rural areas, which house the majority of its population, are particularly vulnerable, with subsistence farmers experiencing significant crop losses, food insecurity, and water shortages. These factors are driving human mobility, with farmers moving from rural areas to urban centres, contributing to labour shortages in agriculture.

Despite being a small country, Bhutan has been striving to adapt to the impacts of climate change. However, its topography and inadequate resources due to the small economy have been constraining Bhutan’s developmental philosophy of Gross National Happiness and the achievement of its global sustainable development goals

This case study explores Bhutan’s response to these challenges, including adaptation strategies, barriers, enablers, and the outcomes of various interventions.

Photo by katyayan gauniyal: Credit Unsplash

Impact on agriculture and human mobility

Over 50 per cent of the Bhutanese population is employed in the agricultural sector, a sector that is threatened by climate change, especially in mountainous regions where subsistence farming is prevalent. The country’s reliance on rain-fed systems renders it highly vulnerable to fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, leading to declining crop yields and escalating food insecurity. The projections until the year 2069 show that precipitation in Bhutan will increase significantly (in frequency and intensity) and this increase may pose a risk to the production of the limited agricultural land in Bhutan. This is particularly an issue because landslides and soil erosion are two major drivers of land degradation. Arable land in Bhutan accounts for less than three per cent of the total land area and about 30% of this land is located on slopes that are vulnerable to landslides and soil erosion. At the same time, changes in precipitation are also expected to affect the availability of water resources, with water sources in the Himalayas drying up at a relatively faster rate than in other regions (ICIMOD).

Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns affect crop yields which can significantly affect GDP. These challenges have resulted in a significant reduction in agriculture’s contribution to the GDP, alongside increased pest and disease pressures exacerbated by climate variability. The consequences extend beyond agriculture, impacting livelihoods and prompting rural-to-urban migration. Many farmers, confronted with failed crops and water scarcity from drying sources, are compelled to abandon their lands—known as gungtongs—and this contributes to food shortages and a reliance on food imports. This trend poses significant risks to rural communities’ sustainability and exacerbates poverty. While human mobility is often seen as a response to economic opportunities, the interplay between climate change and migration remains complex and is poorly understood.

Internal mobility in Bhutan (the highest amongst South-Asian countries) has surged in recent decades and is projected to grow from 6% in 2009 to 70% by 2040. While direct links between climate change and mobility are unclear, districts with high out-migration often rely more on agriculture and face greater climate vulnerabilities and poverty. This trend suggests that climate impacts on agriculture may indirectly drive migration, raising concerns over labour shortages in agriculture and resulting in food security. Comprehensive research is needed to better understand these dynamics and support sustainable development strategies in Bhutan.

Prevalent policies and strategies to address the issue

Bhutan recognizes climate change as a critical challenge to sustainable development and has committed to addressing it through global and national initiatives. To support sustainable growth, Bhutan integrates key developmental goals into its five-year plans. These priorities are outlined in key policy documents like Bhutan 2020, the National Environment Strategy, and the Bhutan Water Vision and Policy, which emphasize environmental sustainability, low-carbon and climate-resilient development, and integrated water resource management.

At the national level, Bhutan has made significant progress in strengthening institutional structures to address the issues of imbalanced spatial economic development and climate change.

For example, a National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology, an autonomous entity was established in 2016 and is mandated for weather monitoring, forecasting, and early warning. This centre is responsible for assessing and informing the nation about any hazards or risks pertaining to climate change so that appropriate action can be taken by relevant agencies.

To be transparent and to support and uphold the pledge to remain a carbon neutral country, in 2023 Bhutan has submitted its third national communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Bhutan has formulated the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) priority based on the level of vulnerability of different sectors such as agriculture and livestock, forestry and biodiversity, health, water resources, energy, natural disasters, and infrastructure. The NAPA priority is integrated into the national five-year plans so that the budget allocated in the beginning of the five-year plans can be used in an integrated manner. Accordingly, Bhutan enacted and implemented the low-carbon development policy and also incorporated many of the points from the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development into its five-year development plans.

Bhutan’s agricultural research and development policy acknowledges that limited land for agriculture, dynamics of rural–urban human mobility, decreasing investment in agriculture, and the under-developed value chains constrained by climate change are the critical areas that need immediate attention. In addition to the implementation of formal policies and strategies, Bhutan has implemented flagship projects to address these recurring issues and also to pilot test the implemented activities.

The government has organised advocacy programmes encouraging farmers to develop entrepreneurial skills so that available land can be made more productive. One such initiative is the organic flagship programme which is expected to address the employment issue and to enhance economic opportunities in rural Bhutan. The flagship programmes are created to deliver ‘immediate’ and ‘tangible’ impacts on society and economic growth, by addressing nine priority areas that require coordination and multi-sectoral interventions. The programmes include Health, Education, Digital Drukyul, Water, Organic Bhutan, Start-up, Tourism, Waste management, and Footprints of National Day, and the implementation of these programmes is monitored directly by the Prime Minister’s office. 

To address rural–urban mobility, the government has adopted an equity-based approach, investing in rural education, income, health, and welfare programs. Initiatives include subsidies, income support, rural-urban connectivity, access to services, and connections to external markets, although limited resources still challenge market access and human resource development. These reforms aim to reduce spatial inequalities, curb rural to urban migration, and promote balanced socio-economic development.

Barriers and gaps in policy & practices

Bhutan has made considerable investments in water resources, infrastructure development, and soil and land management but these infrastructures have not been made climate resilient. Climate change impact is a cross-cutting issue where stakeholder collaboration and coordination are important; however, coordination among the institutions and stakeholders appears to be relatively weak in Bhutan. 

As a mountainous country, Bhutan requires a robust financial base to reduce risks that stem from climate impacts; however, as a small country with limited prospects in business, it has a small economy, limited public funds, and competing needs for other development investments. 

There is also a lack of reliable and quality data because it is difficult to trace the historical development of the agriculture sector. Credible data is required to understand the dynamic of climate change impact especially when a sizable investment to enhance climate-resilient agriculture is undertaken. Quality and reliable climate data is equally paramount to forecast and target advisories to support farmers with appropriate local actions. However, technical capacities among the hydromet, agriculture, and local governments remain inadequate. Similarly, limited disaster knowledge and information on potential sources and locations of natural hazards such as landslides, risks of floods, or drought are a major challenge.

Key Messages

1. Climate change is a cross-cutting issue that requires integrated, multi-sectoral strategies. Bhutan will need to strengthen coordination between agriculture, water management, infrastructure, and meteorological agencies to develop holistic adaptation policies.
2. To withstand the effects of climate change, developing climate-resilient infrastructure, such as durable irrigation systems and roads will be critical. This will help reduce the vulnerability of rural areas to climate hazards.
3. The absence of reliable climate and agricultural data has hampered effective planning. Bhutan needs to invest in data collection and research to design better-informed adaptation strategies and policies.
4. To reduce migration and strengthen food security, the procedures concerning agricultural practices and local economic development should be streamlined, reinforced, and strengthened for climate-resilient development.
5. Current research shows that mitigation and adaptation efforts must go hand in hand, but how addressing agricultural productivity and climate change impacts on farming can address human mobility should be given priority, in order to ensure sustainable development.

Suggested citation

Katel, O. N., Nair, A., Yangchen, U., & Wangmo, C. (2024). Climate Change, Agriculture, and Internal Human Mobility in the Bhutan Himalayas. In S. Jolly, N. Ahmad, & M. Scott (Eds.), Climate-Related Human Mobility in Asia and the Pacific: Interdisciplinary Rights-Based Approaches (pp. 105–120). Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-3234-0