This World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) project combined surveys, interviews, and extensive site visits to assess the economic impact of both natural disasters and climate change on Tajikistan's primary road network. It aimed to identify high risk sites and recommend a range of mitigation measures that could be taken to reduce the risk and effects of particular natural hazards, including flooding, landslides, avalanches, rockfalls, and mudflows.
Natural disasters and climate change threaten Tajikistan’s economic and social development. The country’s varied geological, climatologic, and topographic features exacerbate its vulnerability, making it highly susceptible to many natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, and avalanches. Natural disasters cause both short term and long-lasting damage to infrastructure, economic activity, and social wellbeing. Between 1992 and 2016, economic losses from natural hazards in Tajikistan exceeded $1.8 billion and affected almost 7 million people. An important aspect of this study was to assess how climate change will impact the number and severity of future disasters. This is particularly important in a country such as Tajikistan where the impact of climate change will vary between regions and will affect different hazards in different ways. Overall, it is estimated that the number of disasters affecting the road network will rise by 3% per annum over the next 10 years.
This study, financed by the Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries, quantified the economic costs of disasters that affect the country’s major road network. To justify increased investment in the road network, specifically to increase the level of disaster resilience, it is important to have a clear understanding of these costs and the potential to reduce them.
The geographical scope of the assignment comprised selected key corridors including republican roads across Tajikistan (approximately 2,000 km), focusing on national and international trade corridors and links with neighbouring countries. At the same time, the assessment focused on areas of the country with greater risks from natural hazards.