Taming Wildfires: Addressing climate change impact through enhanced capacity for wildfires management in Armenia

Summary

This project – “Addressing climate change impact through enhanced capacity for wildfires” – aimed to reduce the risk of wildfires to both Armenian society and its mountain ecosystems. To achieve this, its goals included strengthening wildfire early warning and monitoring systems; improving and enforcing policy and regulatory frameworks; defining roles and responsibilities of respective national structures; and developing technical capacities.

Armenia currently has a tree cover of about 10 per cent of its total surface. Most of its forests are located in the Tavush and Lori regions (72 per cent), but there are also forested areas in mountainous regions across the country. Forest degradation and reduced forest integrity result in biodiversity losses, damages of livelihoods and reduced resilience of forest ecosystems to the impacts of climate change.

With an average temperature increase of 1.03°C since records began at the turn of the twentieth century, and an overall average decline in precipitation of 9 per cent compared with the baseline period 1961-1990, Armenia has become more vulnerable to forest fires over the last few decades. Between January 2012 and October 2021, the country experienced a total of 2,464 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) events, in which thermal anomalies are detected by satellites. As a result of prevailing drought conditions and continued hot temperatures, wildfires have caused extensive damage to mountain ecosystems.

Under the observed and projected changes in Armenia’s climate, further aridification creates conditions for more frequent and more intense wildfires. The mountain forests of South Caucasus, where fires were not an intrinsic factor for many years, thus have become much more vulnerable and sensitive.

Forest fires are often caused by the burning of agricultural residue after harvest in lands adjacent to forests. This practice coincides with the highest risk period for wildfires in July to September, when also heatwaves are most likely. Recent models for Armenia project a potential increase of the annual probability of a heatwave to 18 per cent under a high emission scenario by the end of the century. Due to the close interrelation of climatic factors and wildfires, fire regimes respond rapidly to climate change and climate variability. Changing climate conditions can lead to lengthened fire seasons, and more frequent droughts and heatwaves could significantly exacerbate the risk of forest fires in Armenia.

Overview

Location:

• Armenia

Implementation sites:

• Single country
• Multiple locations

Mountain region:

• Gegham range

Province:

• The provinces of Lori and Ararat

Solution scale:

• Local
• National
• Sub-national / Regional

Ecosystem type(s):

• Agricultural land
• Forest

Solution type(s):

• Education and awareness
• Land use practice
• Monitoring
• Policy
• Technological development

Sector(s):

• Ecosystems Biodiversity
• Natural Hazards
• Plans & policy

Climate impact(s) addressed:

• Drought
• Heat stress
• Wild Fire

Impact time-scales:

• Rapid Onset
• Slow Onset

Benefits:

• Climate risk reduction (e.g. reduced risk from floods)

Co-benefits:

• Environmental benefits (e.g. biodiversity preservation, water security, food security)
• Social benefits (e.g. poverty reduction, inclusiveness and equity, health and well-being)
• Technical benefits (e.g. innovative use of geographic information systems)

Implementation timeline:

• 2017 - 2021

Sendai targets:

• 
• 

SDGs:

• 

Upon its completion, the project was evaluated and received a ‘satisfactory’ rating. The project faced some resource challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and post-conflict humanitarian crisis. Yet, it was seen to empower women in the region and there are plans in place to implement and scale-up the project in the future. View the Closure Stage Quality Assurance report for further details.

Long term project sustainability and maintenance

The broad approach taken to combine activities that strengthen technical capacities, improve forecasting and weather services and foster national policy integration, helps ensuring sustainability and secures embedding in existing structures. While the overall maintenance of the procured EWS was handed over to and will be carried out by communities, the overall coordination and accountability lies with the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Thus, an important success factor is the vertical and horizontal coordination between local and national actors and institutions. Also, the nationwide integration of the installed EWS and weather stations ensures proper embedment into an existing system of early warning and data management.

Capacities for design and implementation

Knowledge

Local communities and forest authorities were given access to training on how to minimise fire damage and ecosystem-based adaptation methods.

Technology

Procuring and adding to existing technologies were key to increasing the effectiveness of wildfire management in this solution. Early warning systems and weather stations were installed to increase the scope and accuracy of warning dissemination and wildfire risk forecasts. The Lore rescue team also used drones to monitor forest activities, further helping the region to prepare for wildfires and manage them accordingly.

Political / Legal

To improve wildfire management at both local and national scales, the solution involved the drafting of “Disaster Risk Management and Population Protection” law which was submitted to the government in 2020. 

Institutional

This solution also helped to shift the relationship between rescue volunteers and state institutions (e.g. the neighbouring forest enterprises) from being cooperative to having formalised partnerships. This has strengthened the integration of volunteers into the state-run operations, specifically by placing the volunteer component into the operational management chain. The agreement signed provides clear understanding on the limits and expectations of volunteer involvement, as well as on mutual responsibilities when using the volunteer forces.

Outlook & Scalability

Potential for upscaling and replication

Further replication possibilities in other forest areas of Armenia are being considered. Also, beyond the country, this inclusive approach is equally suitable in regions with a similar climate and landscape, including hilly and mountainous terrain, that face increased risk of wildfires due to climate change and the need to establish an operational disaster risk management system.

The project serves as a study case in terms of both, the approach and implementation mechanisms. It is an example of small and affordable adaptation solutions, which the community could initiate and handle itself through consolidation of existing capacities. The existence of local level adaptation plan is a good starting point and a marketing instrument to attract donors seeking additional funding if required.

Finally

Contacts of key institutional partners involved with the solution planning and implementation

Armen Chilingaryan

Program Coordinator (UNDP Armenia)