Snow and Ice in the Caucasus Mountains – Adapting to a Critical Resource Decline

Summary

The Regional Adaptation Dialogue in the South Caucasus (RADISC) on “Snow and Ice in the Caucasus Mountains – Adapting to a Critical Resource in Decline” was held from 20-22 May 2025 in Stepantsminda, Georgia. Hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) and its Global Network for Observations and Information in Mountain Environments (GEO Mountains), and the Caucasus Network for Sustainable Development of Mountain Regions (Sustainable Caucasus), the meeting gathered 21 participants from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, including representatives from ministries, experts and academia as well as online panelists and experts from several international organizations.

Highlights from expert presentations

The Dialogue focused on the science-policy interface regarding the impacts of changing snow and ice, beginning with global trends, cryosphere data governance, and narrowing down to the South Caucasus. Speakers included Susana Hancock (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative), Carolina Adler (MRI), and Rodica Nitu (World Meteorological Organization), and presented the State of the Cryosphere 2024 report, emphasizing the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial for minimizing future global ice loss. WMO initiatives such as the Global Basic Observing Network were introduced, underlining the importance of cryosphere monitoring in informing policy and investment decisions. Highlights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IPCC Sixth Assessment, the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, and the Cross-Chapter Paper on Mountains were also shared, noting that the report identified significant knowledge gaps in the South Caucasus region.

Levan Tielidze (Ilia State University) presented an overview on the “Present State of Glaciers of the Caucasus Region,” detailed the accelerating glacier retreat in the Caucasus since the 1990s, now exceeding rates in the Alps. Harry Zekollari (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) shared findings from a recent global glacier study titled Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C, highlighted that glaciers in the South Caucasus are exhibit above-average sensitivity to any additional global warming and noted the urgent role of near-term global policies in shaping glacier futures. Panos Hadjinicolaou (The Cyprus Institute) introduced upcoming high-resolution (12.5 x 12.5 km) climate projections (MENA-CORDEX) for the South Caucasus region, expected in 2026.

Drawing on the international policy context, particularly the UNFCCC and the UNGA-proclaimed International Year of Glaciers Preservation, the presentation was followed by country-focused exchanges that explored policies on adaptation and Loss and Damage frameworks, with contributions from Amalya Misakyan (Armhydromet), Kahkha Lomashvili (MEPA Georgia), Natavan Jafarova (Institute of Geography, Azerbaijan). Emphasis was placed on the need for modern technologies and monitoring systems, the establishment of early warning systems, and improved data integration and forecasting. National instruments such as NDCs, NAPs, and UNFCCC reports, and regional projects and programmes like Mountains ADAPT and Glaciers to Farms were also discussed.

A regional knowledge-sharing session on glacier melt and disaster risk reduction included insights from Matthieu Kohl (WMO), Diana Aripkhanova (UNESCO), Babar Khan (ICIMOD). The WMO’s Early Warning for All initiative and examples from Central Asia (e.g., Joint Disaster Risk Reduction Statement, Inter-governmental Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan Centre for Emergency Situations, Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis) and Hindu-Kush-Himalaya regional instruments (e.g., ICIMOD’s Regional Database System, HKH Ministerial Mechanism with a thematic working group on the cryosphere) illustrated effective models for regional collaboration and science-policy integration.

Main outputs and outcomes

• Strengthened dialogue on respective national adaptation policies and expanded opportunities for regional and multi-stakeholder cooperation on cryosphere changes in the South Caucasus.
• Enhanced exchange and capacity-development to enhance the effectiveness of monitoring and adaptation to snow and ice loss in the region.
• Identified data governance needs and approaches which, if more widely implemented, will enhance open data and information availability.
• Identified gaps and needs in science-policy exchange and cooperation, scoped key regional issues related to the shrinking snow and ice cover, and conducted consultations to inform future regional dialogue and resource mobilization.
• Gathered feedback on a draft regional policy brief – Melting Heritage: Adapting to changing snow and ice cover in the South Caucasus, which details the current state of the snow and ice cover in the South Caucasus, along with ongoing efforts and necessary actions to improve the monitoring of, and adapt to, climate-induced cryosphere changes.

Gaps and needs identified through discussions

Key gaps in integrating scientific evidence into policymaking were identified during the session on “Science to Policy – Building Resilience in South Caucasus Ecosystems”. Participants highlighted the absence of an open, regional platform for sharing research and monitoring data. Suggestions included introducing science briefings for high-level decision-makers, conducting regional snow and Snow Water Equivalent assessments, and using events such as a fourth Caucasus Mountain Forum to strengthen regional experience-sharing and build new partnerships.

Discussions emphasized the need for improved regional cooperation on disaster risk management, the need for in situ monitoring, quality control, and regional data exchange systems. Collaboration with academia was seen as crucial for data collection, forecasting, and informing policy. Biodiversity integration into cryosphere monitoring was also noted.

Further discussions focused on climate and cryosphere data, observations, and monitoring across the South Caucasus, highlighting gaps in high-elevation monitoring and the need for expanded snow and permafrost stations. Key suggestions included enhancing links between observation and modelling communities, developing open-access data portals, and expanding monitoring networks. Participants called for next-generation regional climate models tailored to the South Caucasus’ complex topography and dynamic processes, with high-resolution data (e.g. hourly, 12.5 km²) at up to 30 m resolution. Model ensembles were preferred for national planning, while scenario averages suited for local studies. During the consultation on future regional dialogue and resource mobilization in the South Caucasus, participants expressed strong willingness to engage and collaborate. Emphasis was placed on the importance of sharing lessons learned in developing and implementing adaptation and resilience policies, the value of multi-stakeholder exchange, and the benefits of learning from diverse regional contexts. The added value of in-person meetings – especially those held in mountain areas – was also highlighted.

The focus areas for future dialogue can include knowledge exchange on policy and methodologies development, sharing best practices on hazard mapping, environmental flow calculations, Loss and Damage assessments, and capacity-building efforts such as trainings and high-level regional meetings. Universities were identified as essential partners, serving as key knowledge holders for advancing these efforts.

Field visit and photo exhibition

A field visit to the Devdoraki Valley was another highlight of RADISC, led by Irakli Megrelidze and Ioseb Kinkladze (NEA). The group explored the site of the 2014 Devdoraki glacial debris flow, which prompted the installation of the current early warning system on the Devdoraki Glacier. While many high-risk areas in the region still lack such systems, the visit provoked discussion on this gap. Participants also visited a hydrometeorological station and explored pristine mountain landscapes crowned by glaciers.

To bridge art and science, a photo exhibition was hosted, featuring Georgian photographer Maryam Mumladze’s project “Shifting Landscapes: The Nature of Risk”.

Opportunities for the scientists from the South Caucasus region

A discussion on regional expert participation in the Seventh Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR7) and related policy processes highlighted the key role of national IPCC Focal Points in engaging the research community. Increasing visibility of the South Caucasus and advocating for tailored adaptation and mitigation is crucial, given the region’s high vulnerability to climate impacts. However, limited awareness of these processes, along with data and research gaps, inhibit the region’s representation.

The launch of the IPCC’s AR7 cycle presents opportunities for regional experts to contribute as Contributing Authors, Chapter Scientists, or Expert Reviewers. Additional opportunities include joining GEO Mountains and the MRI Expert Database, open platforms that enhance visibility and collaboration on mountain data and research. Experts can also contribute to the ICCI-led State of the Cryosphere report by submitting relevant publications for consideration in the report or to join the group of reviewers.